Economic Calendar (This Week)
5 events
Federal Funds Rate
Jul 29est 3.75%prev 3.75%
FOMC Statement
Jul 29est prev
FOMC Press Conference
Jul 29est prev
Advance GDP q/q
Jul 30est 2.1%prev 2.0%
Core PCE Price Index m/m
Jul 30est 0.2%prev 0.3%

Credit Stress Alert

HY spreads pending, unemployment error, delinquency 2.92% but declining trend

HY Credit Spread

281

Credit Market Digest

Lender Health: StableMajor banks trading flat to slightly up—JPMorgan 357.31, BofA 62.62, Wells Fargo 86.87. HY credit spreads pending data, limiting stress visibility.
Consumer Debt: RisingTotal consumer debt reached $18.8 trillion, continuing upward trend despite modest savings rate of 3.0% and confidence at 90.8.
Delinquencies: DecliningCredit card delinquencies at 2.92% and trending down—positive signal that borrowers remain current despite debt load growth.
Fed Stance: Holding PatternFed Funds rate remains 3.50%-3.75%, unchanged from prior period. FOMC meets Jul 29 with no rate change expected (3.75% forecast). 10Y Treasury at 4.60% suggests stable long-term rates.
Labor & Savings: Soft SignalsUnemployment data missing (error), creating blind spot. Low 3.0% savings rate indicates limited household buffers against income shocks.
Risk SummaryConsumer debt climbing while savings weak is structurally concerning. Bank stock stability masks deteriorating delinquency data visibility (auto loan missing). If unemployment ticks up or confidence drops, credit availability could tighten quickly. Monitor FOMC statement today for forward guidance.

Unemployment Rate

4.2%

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

3.5%

Affirm Holdings (BNPL)

$72.40

Cashcow (Micro-Loans)

$53.81

Upstart Holdings (AI Lending)

$27.82

Klodo (Installment Lending)

$0.0001

BNPL Default Rates

1.83%

Debt Securitization & Secondary Market

No value found

10Y Treasury Yield (Base Rate)

4.60% (Jul 28)

Consumer Delinquency Rates

Credit card: 2.92%, Auto loan: No value found

Total Consumer Debt

$18.8 trillion

Savings Rate & Confidence

3.0%, 90.8

Fed Funds Rate

3.50%-3.75%

Micro-Lending Industry Digest

Micro-Lending & Debt Collection Industry Health
Core Metrics:Credit card delinquency remains stable at 2.92% with declining trend—a positive signal for near-term credit quality. Auto loan data unavailable, limiting broader delinquency visibility. Total consumer debt sits at $18.8 trillion, unchanged week-over-week.
Market Positioning:Affirm Holdings (BNPL) trades flat at 72.40. Data gaps on Upstart Holdings, Klodo, Cashcow, and Ares Management due to pending/unavailable feeds prevent full stress assessment. BNPL default rates remain unpublished, creating opacity on short-term lending health.
Regulatory & Macro Headwinds:Fed holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% ahead of today's FOMC decision. 10Y Treasury at 4.60% maintains funding cost pressure. Unemployment stable at 4.2%; CPI at 3.5% suggests no immediate consumer distress wave.
Red Flags:Debt securitization data missing—critical metric for resale activity and secondary market health. Regulatory action tracking offline. Micro-lending news feed inactive.
Assessment: Limited visibility due to data gaps, but delinquency decline and stable unemployment suggest near-term stress is contained. Complete picture requires updated default, profitability, and securitization data.
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Regulatory & Legal Actions

No value found

Ares Management (Debt Buyer/Collector)

$644bn

Consumer Credit - 7di Public Dashboard